If only the week had ended on Wednesday, as by that point, everything except Berkshire Hathaway was up substantially. Unfortunately, the Dubai debacle on Thanksgiving resulted in a marked decline come opening on Friday. There was some recovery by the end of the day, but it certainly wasn’t enough to regain all that was lost. Nonetheless, most portfolios did end the week slightly up from where they had been a week ago. Still, the gains could have been so much greater.
Due to some software difficulties, there will be no chart this week. However, I have good reason to suspect it will make a full return next week. Until then, you’ll have to make do with the table:
| Portfolio | Last Week | This Week | % Chg | Total Gain | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Metals | $1891.32 | $1898.74 | +0.39% | +$398.74 | +59.66% |
| Magic Formula | $1804.40 | $1833.99 | +1.64% | +$333.99 | +33.92% |
| TMW | $1816.20 | $1816.20 | 0.00% | +$316.20 | +39.37% |
| Caribou | $1780.11 | $1791.73 | +0.65% | +$291.73 | +29.70% |
| Decision Moose | $1670.48 | $1729.17 | +3.51% | +$229.17 | +23.17% |
| Berkshire Hathaway | $1708.26 | $1676.05 | -1.89% | +$176.05 | +11.99% |
If there were a chart, it still wouldn’t show you much. We are at the point where even several percentage points of gain or loss don’t add up to much in overall movement. In any case, here are my thoughts on the week:
- The precious metals remain at top. Until Friday’s slight decline, gold had been in the midst of nine consecutive up days, which made it very hard to beat. Silver hadn’t been quite as impressive, but the precious metals nevertheless ended the week slightly up.
- Thanks to a relatively decent week, the Magic Formula has reclaimed second place after a brief time in third. The lead is not very impressive, so I wouldn’t count on it lasting in the short run. Even in the long run, I expect it to fall to third, behind Caribou and Decision Moose. Of course, we all know how useful my predictions are.
- TMW ultimately didn’t go anywhere, falling right back to where it started the week. It’s good to know that even in a week that was neutral for the market as a whole, most of the portfolios made some gains.
- Still invested in EWZ, Caribou managed to gain slightly on the week. Of course, the gain had been 3.69% on Wednesday, but Friday had other plans for the portfolio.
- Inexplicably, Decision Moose somehow managed to keep its Wednesday position, though I’m skeptical. If you look at the chart for ILF, you’ll see a sudden spike immediately before close on Friday. There is an associated spike in trading volume, but it still seems strange to me that it happened to jump almost exactly to Wednesday’s close. All will be settled on Monday when the markets open, but for now I’m taking this with a grain of salt.
- Rounding up this herd, we find Berkshire Hathaway, casually lounging around at the bottom. Of course, the CAGR is in the range of what I’d expect long-term for BRK-B, so it’s not like there’s any overwhelming underperformance here. The market as a whole has outperformed general expectations this year, but that hasn’t transferred over to Berkshire Hathaway. After a few years, it should manage to maintain a position above TMW and the precious metals, but probably not above anything else. Then again, Buffett’s eventual retirement could completely change that prediction.
Like so many weeks before, Caribou has once again elected to remain invested in EWZ, though it hasn’t really gone anywhere in the past few weeks. I see no reason to suspect this will change for at least another couple of weeks. That said, it’s sometimes hard to predict exactly what will happen without digging up the historical prices.
Anyway, here’s the MFI portfolio detail:
| Stock | Purchase Date | Cost | Last Week | Current | Dividends | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLTI | 2009-03-10 | $1.44 | $3.69 | $4.82 | $0.00 | +234.72% |
| CTCM | 2009-04-08 | $5.80 | $15.64 | $14.68 | $0.00 | +153.10% |
| MSB | 2009-03-10 | $6.06 | $11.82 | $12.33 | $0.60 | +113.21% |
| HSII | 2009-01-22 | $16.79 | $28.54 | $28.50 | $0.52 | +72.89% |
| PRGX | 2009-04-08 | $3.25 | $4.75 | $4.61 | $0.00 | +41.85% |
| GHM | 2009-06-11 | $13.95 | $18.86 | $18.78 | $0.02 | +34.77% |
| VSNT | 2009-05-07 | $14.68 | $17.98 | $18.93 | $0.00 | +28.95% |
| ENDP | 2009-06-11 | $17.59 | $22.20 | $22.60 | $0.00 | +28.48% |
| PTIE | 2009-03-10 | $3.96 | $4.75 | $4.94 | $0.00 | +24.75% |
| KSW | 2009-01-22 | $2.95 | $3.45 | $3.49 | $0.10 | +21.69% |
| ELNK | 2009-04-08 | $7.08 | $8.47 | $8.10 | $0.14 | +21.69% |
| KHD | 2009-01-22 | $10.17 | $11.58 | $11.61 | $0.00 | +14.17% |
| TSRA | 2009-11-04 | $21.29 | $23.66 | $23.65 | $0.00 | +11.09% |
| LO | 2009-09-09 | $73.49 | $79.48 | $78.91 | $0.00 | +7.37% |
| SOLR | 2009-07-10 | $4.59 | $4.74 | $4.83 | $0.00 | +5.25% |
| CHKE | 2009-05-07 | $18.75 | $19.13 | $18.58 | $1.00 | +4.43% |
| UEPS | 2009-11-04 | $18.25 | $18.92 | $18.71 | $0.00 | +2.52% |
| CYTK | 2009-09-09 | $3.21 | $3.40 | $3.25 | $0.00 | +1.25% |
| DIVX | 2009-07-10 | $5.02 | $5.21 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| GNI | 2009-08-05 | $92.00 | $89.23 | $90.20 | $1.80 | 0.00% |
| EME | 2009-08-05 | $24.30 | $24.56 | $23.96 | $0.00 | -1.38% |
| QCOR | 2009-05-07 | $4.44 | $4.16 | $4.28 | $0.00 | -3.67% |
| AMED | 2009-11-04 | $41.51 | $37.69 | $38.19 | $0.00 | -7.99% |
| MIPS | 2009-10-07 | $4.15 | $3.88 | $3.81 | $0.00 | -8.19% |
| JCOM | 2009-10-07 | $22.18 | $20.40 | $20.09 | $0.00 | -9.41% |
| GIGM | 2009-10-07 | $4.77 | $4.09 | $4.07 | $0.00 | -14.68% |
| PPD | 2009-09-09 | $47.50 | $37.22 | $39.02 | $0.00 | -17.85% |
| USMO | 2009-08-05 | $12.80 | $10.37 | $10.22 | $0.00 | -20.15% |
| MTXX | 2009-07-10 | $5.37 | $4.22 | $3.98 | $0.00 | -25.88% |
| SCMP | 2009-06-11 | $6.43 | $3.71 | $3.47 | $0.00 | -46.03% |
QLTI climbed over a dollar to reclaim its ridiculous 200+% gain. That’s right, the initial $50 investment is currently worth $167.36. If only I’d had the foresight to invest my entire portfolio. Of course, that’d have been a pretty dumb move at the time, but it sure looks great in hindsight. A bunch of other stocks had good weeks, as well. A few other stocks had some terrible weeks, and SCMP is giving me no hope that it will ever make progress toward the green side of things. At least stocks have more upward-potential than downward: they can go as high as they want, but the most they can go down is to $0.
Disclaimer: This post is a description of my own forays into investing, and should not be construed as investment advice or the recommendation of any particular security over any other. Please consult your investment adviser or accountant before making any investment decisions. What’s right for me is very likely to not be right for you.
