Portfolio Comparison: November 2011
December 7, 2011 Leave a Comment
Halloween may have been a bust, with October being one of the least scary investing months this year. However, there was little to be thankful for in November, with most portfolios taking a hit, to put it mildly. Still, despite the overall atmosphere of loss, there are some clear spots in this cloudy sky. A few portfolios actually saw a rise, and perhaps more important, the end of the month saw stocks begin to climb again. Whether that trend will continue or not, no one can say.
In any case, let’s start by looking at the data for last month:
| Portfolio | Last Month | This Month | % Chg | Total Gain | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caribou | $101759.31 | $103780.04 | +1.986% | +$3780.04 | +7.957% |
| Decision Moose | $100111.42 | $102099.43 | +1.986% | +$2099.43 | +4.381% |
| Precious Metals | $102765.04 | $101329.87 | -1.397% | +$1329.87 | +2.764% |
| Savings Account | $100398.36 | $100472.30 | +0.074% | +$472.30 | +0.977% |
| Permanent Portfolio | $100314.92 | $98965.09 | -1.346% | -$1034.91 | -2.124% |
| U.S. Market | $97082.88 | $96742.61 | -0.350% | -$3257.39 | -6.605% |
| Magic Formula | $95464.23 | $92961.48 | -2.622% | -$7038.52 | -13.981% |
| Skunks of the Dow | $93456.09 | $87293.84 | -6.594% | -$12706.16 | -24.453% |
| Mechanical Blend | $87739.07 | $83903.57 | -4.371% | -$16096.43 | -30.382% |
| Sector Flow | $76675.52 | $76179.71 | -0.647% | -$23820.29 | -42.961% |
If you look at the shape of the curves in the graph, you can see that the second half of the month was mostly spent making up for the losses experienced in the first half. Three portfolios had different tracks, however, so let’s take a look at the individual results:
- Leading the way in the comparison are the Caribou and Decision Moose portfolios, which are based on similar methodologies. Their advantage this month can largely be attributed to their holding of TLT, an ETF invested in long-term bonds. However, as bonds have receded in the past couple of weeks, so have these portfolios. Nonetheless, their performance is good enough to keep them in first and second place, respectively.
- The precious metals didn’t fare nearly as well, following the overall equities track for the month: falling early, and subsequently rising, ending the month with a small loss. Excellent performance in previous months has kept the metals high in the comparison.
- Next in the list is the savings account, which as you might suspect, earns paltry sub-1% interest at the moment. Despite this, it’s in fourth place, which speaks to how poorly stocks have been doing in recent months. It’s worth noting that Caribou and Decision Moose are currently the only portfolios beating all three of my benchmarks (U.S. Market, Savings Account, and Precious Metals).
- In fifth place, we find the Permanent Portfolio, which ultimately went slightly negative after this month’s results.
- Rounding out the bottom are the five stock-based portfolios in the comparison. It’ll be interesting to see if they can make up some ground over the next few months.
This post is somewhat late this month, as the rebalance date was two days ago, on Monday. The Magic Formula portfolio added MNTA and VG. The Mechanical Blend portfolio had several stocks swap in and out as usual. The rest of portfolios didn’t end up changing much at all, beyond rebalancing.
Disclaimer: This post is a description of my own forays into investing, offered as general market commentary, and should not be construed as investment advice or the recommendation of a particular security over any other.
