Portfolio Comparison: December 2011
January 5, 2012 Leave a Comment
The time has come for yet another monthly update to my portfolio comparison that I began several months ago: choosing ten different potential investment strategies, throwing them into the pit, and letting them duke it out until someone emerged victorious over its brethren. We’re only a few short months into this contest, however, and with the kind of swings a single month can bring, we’re nowhere close to being able to crown a winner. I’m not sure such a thing will ever be possible.
Looking generally at the results of the last month, however, we can make a few small points: Some portfolios were up and some were down, but overall, it was largely a month of staying right where we started. I’m sure I could contort that into some sort of holiday-themed message, but I probably missed the boat on that one. Let’s begin this month’s comparison by looking at the raw data:
| Portfolio | Last Month | This Month | % Chg | Total Gain | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Moose | $102099.43 | $105276.92 | +3.112% | +$5276.92 | +9.498% |
| Caribou | $103780.04 | $101948.78 | -1.765% | +$1948.78 | +3.464% |
| Savings Account | $100472.30 | $100544.85 | +0.072% | +$544.85 | +0.959% |
| U.S. Market | $96742.61 | $97637.07 | +0.925% | -$2362.93 | -4.132% |
| Permanent Portfolio | $98965.09 | $95535.20 | -3.466% | -$4464.80 | -7.743% |
| Magic Formula | $92961.48 | $94968.53 | +2.159% | -$5031.47 | -8.706% |
| Skunks of the Dow | $87293.84 | $88038.80 | +0.853% | -$11961.20 | -20.131% |
| Precious Metals | $101329.87 | $87913.07 | -13.241% | -$12086.93 | -20.332% |
| Mechanical Blend | $83903.57 | $84344.78 | +0.526% | -$15655.22 | -25.949% |
| Sector Flow | $76179.71 | $76669.31 | +0.643% | -$23330.69 | -37.422% |
A clear (if boring) trend seems to have emerged on the chart: almost nothing has happened in the past three months. This is hardly a trend that’s going to fatten anyone’s wallet. The last month was a microcosm of the last quarter, with a largely uneventful set of changes. Of course, there was a single exception, but more on that in a paragraph of three. Let’s quickly run down this past month’s results:
- Continuing to lead the way at the top are the Caribou and Decision Moose portfolios. Caribou spent some time in gold, but eventually returned to the safety of bonds, where Decision Moose has found its home recently. Decision Moose was up somewhat, and Caribou ultimately fell, but they’re still beating all the benchmarks, and that’s all we can ask for, I suppose.
- In third place, we find the simple ING Direct Orange savings account, which despite reducing its interest rate once again, continues to taunt the stock-based strategies which find themselves in a deep hole.
- It wasn’t all bad for stocks, however, as all of the stock-based strategies found a way to make up some ground. The gains weren’t impressive, but at least they resulted in that nice green color.
- The Permanent Portfolio and Precious Metals portfolios both lost ground in December, unfortunately. The metals perilously so, dropping an impressive 13% in a single month. We could really use Burl Ives right about now, what with Silver and Gold floundering this Christmas season.
Once again this month, the post follows the rebalancing, which occurred on Tuesday. The Magic Formula portfolio added KLIC and DELL, the Mechanical Blend portfolio had several socks move in and out, and the rest of the portfolios merely rebalanced.
Disclaimer: This post is a description of my own forays into investing, offered as general market commentary, and should not be construed as investment advice or the recommendation of a particular security over any other.
